Methods & disclaimer
How the approval probability is calculated
We start from the selected bureau's approval rate over the last 12 months (approved ÷ approved + denied), then apply log-odds adjustments for income, payment records and other factors. If a basic guideline condition is not met, the result is capped at 5%.
The standard depends on the submission date. Before April 2026, the old standard applies. From April 2026, applicants other than spouses and children of Japanese nationals or permanent residents are assessed on whether household income exceeds the average for a Japanese household of the same size. From April 2027, the new guidelines apply in full, adding Japanese B1 and projected pension (amounts unpublished, so we use your self-check). The Agency does not publish amounts, so about ¥4.87M for one person (National Tax Agency average salary), ¥6.74M for two, ¥7.72M for three and ¥8.90M for four (converted from the household survey) are our own estimates.
Official statistics do not publish approval rates by route or personal situation, so these weights are set by hand and have not been calibrated on real cases. The percentage helps compare situations but is not a validated prediction. The income guide under the old standard (¥3M + ¥700k per dependent) is a rule of thumb, not an official standard.
How the wait time is calculated
Pending cases at application ÷ average cases completed per month over the last 12 months, assuming first come, first served. Real cases vary widely, so the range is 30% either side of the estimate. Actual processing times are not published. Results are shown in days. The Agency's standard processing period is 4–6 months, about 120–180 days.
What this site does not do
This site does not write or fill in application forms, reason statements or other submission documents, does not judge whether an individual case will be approved, and does not act as your agent. For advice on your case, consult a gyoseishoshi (administrative scrivener) or a lawyer.
Your data
Guest data stays in your browser. After you log in, your checklist and entries are synced, and only the fields shown in the table are public when you submit a case. The list shows only the latest 20; the rest are used for statistics only. We do not accept document files. You can delete your account and all data on the account page.